Institute for Health and Human Development

Wellbeing and Globalisation

Project: Environmental Constraints on Health Improvement

Project Lead: Adrian Renton , Martin Wall

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While the link between health and social and economic development is being re-emphasised by UN agencies; the sustainability of current world patterns of energy use  which fuel economic development is under serious question because of fossil fuel depletion and the impact of CO2 emissions on climate change.  In this paper we review and extend  International Energy Agency (IEA) projections for economic growth and energy consumption; and estimate the impact of these in UN Human Development Index health indicators over the next century. 

We have used IEA analysis to project over the period the period 2002-2102. We have estimated the effect of GDP growth and improved education on under-five mortality rate (UFMR) and life expectancy at  birth in females (LE) between 1970 and 2002 using a reworking of the World Bank regression model and World Bank country specific data.  We have Applied regression coefficients to projected impact of GDP growth in 50 countries with purchasing power parity GDP of less than $4,000 per capita in 2002 to project improvement  in Under fives mortality rate (UFMR) and Life Expectancy between 2003 and 2102.   

 Making optimistic assumptions about energy efficiency and  substitution of new energy sources, current reserves of conventional oil and gas will be exhausted by the middle of the current century.  At the point at which current oil (gas) reserves are projected to be exhausted, 44% (50%) of countries would be projected to have achieved per capita PPP GDP of $4,000; 49% (59%) to have achieved an under five mortality rate of less than 50 per 1,000 births and 65% (77%) to have achieved a life expectancy among females  of 65 years

The poorest countries are unlikely to achieve the levels of health experienced in rich countries today before a serious energy crisis unfolds. Reduction in consumption in rich countries may be the only way to secure the health and development future of poor countries. Analysis of the evidence concerning the relationship between consumption and wellbeing suggest that such a reduction could improve rather than reduce wellbeing in rich countries.

To read the discussion paper presenting the findings in detail please go here.

To view a powerpoint presentation on the subject please go here

For more information contact Adrian Renton , Martin Wall

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