Position: Principal Lecturer in Economics and Finance
Location: BS.4.23
Telephone: 0208 223 3340
Email: c.richter@uel.ac.uk
Contact address:
UEL Royal Docks Business School
University of East London
Docklands Campus
4-6 University Way
London E16 2RD
Christian is an Economics graduate of the Universities of Mainz (Germany) and Glasgow and he obtained his PhD from the University of Strathclyde. From 2000 to 2002 Christian worked as a research fellow at University of Strathclyde in Glasgow with Prof Andrew Hughes Hallett on the impact of the Lisbon Agenda. In 2002, he won a lectureship in economics at Cardiff University, where he left in 2004. From 2004 to 2008, Christian was a lecturer in economics at Loughborough University. From 2008 to 2010 he was a senior lecturer at Kingston University where he was also acting director of studies. Since April 2010, Christian is a Principal Lecturer in Economics and Funance at University of East London. Christian’s research areas are Macroeconomics, Financial Economics, Econometrics and Climate Change.
Programme Leader BA Economics
Financial Economics, Behavioural Economics and Finance, Macroeconomics, Econometrics, Climate Change
MSc Finance and Risk
BA Economics
Honorary Chair of the International Network for Economic Research (INFER)
A Time-Frequency Analysis on the Impact of Climate Variability on Semi-Natural Grassland Meadows in northeast Portugal By Mario Cunha and Christian Richter
Abstract
This paper analyses the impact of climate on vegetation growth for a rural, mountainous region in North-Eastern Portugal. In particular, we measure vegetation growth by using the ten-days synthesis dataset from SPOT-VEGETATION satellite images from 1998 to 2011. We examine the dynamic patterns of vegetation growth inferred by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).We test whether the growth pattern of the NDVI has changed due to climate variability and we test the relationship of NDVI with temperature and available soil water. In order to check for changes in the growth cycles we use a time-frequency approach followed by decompose the growth rate variance. We estimate a time-varying autoregressive model which could explain 99% of the satellite based growth rate that is characterized by the existence of two-year spring cycles, but also longer term cycles. We find a change of the cyclical pattern for the spring season and different changes if we take into account all seasons. This suggests, that individual seasons may undergo cyclical changes which are different to other seasons. To model the cyclical behaviour we use a discrete time Fourier transform. Our analysis shows that temperature and available soil water are the main drivers of vegetation growth. We can also recognise a shift of the relative importance away from temperature to soil water. Despite soil water explaining about 50% of short term cycles of the vegetation growth rate, temperature still explains about 90% of those cycles. We interpret this that if in future temperature changes or we experience more infrequent rainfalls, soil water will be the limiting resource for vegetation growth and, therefore, will become relatively more important than temperature.
How Reliable are Budget Sustainability Tests? A Case Study for Greece by Christian Richter and Dimitrios Paparas
Abstract:
In this paper we try to answer if the empirical evidence on the Greek fiscal policy has been consistent with the government intertemporal budget constraint during two tested periods, 1833-2009 and 1960-2009. The recent Greek debt crisis provides a unique opportunity to test whether sustainability tests produce what they ought to produce: We know that the Greek debt is unsustainable, so do the sustainability tests show the same? We use several common approaches such as Johansen approach, DOLS, Engle-Granger approach, Bohn test and finally Trehan-Walsh approach. Our results are mixed and in contrast with our expectations, because the majority of the tests indicate sustainable fiscal policy in both tested periods. One reason for the non-performance of the sustainability tests may be that they do not include information provided by rating agencies (which may not always be rational). Another important limitation of the present value budget constraint is the assumption of infinite growth of the economy. Additionally, the budget deficit is one of the most important fiscal instruments, and based on previous data processes.
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